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Portuguese Central bank expects GDP to grow 1.5%, inflation of 5.8% in 2023

In the December Economic Bulletin, released on Friday, the institution led by Mário Centeno, forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.8% this year.

 

The Bank of Portugal has slightly improved GDP growth forecasts to 6.8% this year but has reduced the forecasts for 2023 to 1.5% and is more pessimistic about inflation, predicting 8.1% this year and 5.8% in 2023.


In the December Economic Bulletin, released on Friday, the institution led by Mário Centeno, forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.8% this year, compared to forecasts of 6.7% in October and 6.3% in June.



The forecast is close to that of the government, since in the state budget for 2023, the government estimates pointed to a GDP expansion of 6.5% this year, but the prime minister said he believed it would reach 6.7%.


However, the banking regulator is more pessimistic about 2023 compared to June, forecasting growth of 1.5%, when it previously estimated 2.6%.

The forecast is slightly more optimistic than that of the government which projects a 1.3% expansion.


With regard to inflation, the banking supervisor has once again worsened its estimates and projects a rate of 8.1% this year and 5.8% in 2023, when in June it forecast 5.9% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023 (in October, it estimated a rate of 7.8% for this year).


The Bank of Portugal is more pessimistic than the government, which forecasts that the Harmonised Consumer Price Index will reach 7.4% this year and 4% in 2023.


Source: CCIPV / EcoNews PT

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